Anticipating Risk, Enabling Peace: Data-Driven Prevention of Electoral Violence in Africa

As over a dozen African countries prepare for elections in 2025–2026, the stakes for safeguarding democratic processes and ensuring peaceful transitions of power are critically high. This workshop brings together SeeD, Interpeace, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) and a seasoned AfroBarometer expert to explore how data-driven approaches can help us move from reactive crisis response to anticipatory peacebuilding. By combining participatory methods with rigorous, multi-source evidence, the session will demonstrate how inclusive decision-making can more effectively prevent electoral violence in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
The session highlights real-world applications of two complementary tools: the multi-year, multi-wave Peace & Electoral Stability Barometer—developed by SeeD and Interpeace with EU support in Côte d’Ivoire—and WANEP’s Hotspot Mapping, used widely across West Africa. While the Barometer uses an individual-level data to identify risks and resilience factors, Hotspot Mapping engages community monitors to track local dynamics and identify flashpoints. Both serve as early warning systems that track political trust, intergroup tensions, institutional confidence, and signs of civic unrest.
Combining methods with evidence and practice, participants will engage with dynamic data visualizations, engage in real-time tool demonstrations, and deliberate on how these insights can inform prevention strategies and institutional policies. The workshop will also address challenges of data uptake, including navigating political will, translating insights into action, and building inclusive response mechanisms, to explore ways to overcome them for greater impact.